July 28, 2026 Precious Metals Spot Prices: Gold Volatile, Silver Strengthens, Markets Eye Fed Decision

During the Asian session on July 28, 2026, the international precious metals market showed divergent trends. Spot gold fluctuated narrowly in the range of $2,342-2,355 per ounce, and as of 16:00 Beijing time, it was reported at $2,348.3, down 0.12% intraday. Spot silver continued its recent strength, breaking above the $31 mark to a high of $31.28, up 0.88%, hitting a new three-week high. The gold-silver ratio fell from 76.5 yesterday to 75.2, indicating relatively stronger performance in silver.

Market Drivers

Weaker Dollar and Falling Treasury Yields

Overnight, US June new home sales data missed expectations, falling 5.4% month-over-month to an annualized rate of only 612,000 units, raising concerns of an economic slowdown. The dollar index came under pressure, breaking below the 104 level to a low of 103.82, the lowest since mid-July. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.28% to 4.21%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and providing support for gold prices.

Fed Rate Decision Preview

Market focus this week is on the Fed's rate decision early Thursday. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 92.3% probability of keeping rates unchanged, but the market is more focused on the policy statement and Powell's remarks regarding a potential rate cut in September. Recent US inflation data has continued to decline, with core PCE falling to 2.4%, approaching the 2% target. If the Fed signals a dovish stance, it could push gold prices above the recent range top of $2,370.

Capital Flows and Position Changes

The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw its holdings increase slightly by 0.87 tons to 842.15 tons after three consecutive days of reduction, indicating some bargain hunting. Silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, saw holdings increase for two consecutive days, adding a cumulative 45.6 tons to 14,623 tons, reflecting optimistic expectations for a recovery in silver industrial demand. CFTC data shows that for the week ending July 21, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures decreased by 12,384 contracts to 197,562, while silver net longs increased by 4,516 contracts to 56,781, a clear shift of funds from gold to silver.

Technical Analysis

Gold: Range Consolidation Awaiting Breakout

On the daily chart, gold remains in a wide range of $2,300-2,370. The Bollinger Band midline is flat, currently near $2,340, providing short-term support. The MACD shows a golden cross below the zero line, with a slight expansion of red histogram bars, indicating limited upside momentum. On the 4-hour chart, gold is forming a converging triangle in the $2,335-2,355 range, awaiting a direction. Key resistance above is at $2,370 (previous high and 200-day MA), support below at $2,330 (100-day MA). A break above $2,370 could target $2,400; a break below $2,330 may retest the $2,300 level.

Silver: Target $32 After Breaking $31

Silver posted three consecutive bullish daily candles, breaking above the previous consolidation range around $31. The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with prices moving along the upper band. The RSI is at 66, not yet in overbought territory, suggesting further upside. Fibonacci retracement shows the 0.382 level from the June low of $28.5 to the July high of $31.5 is at $30.5, providing strong support. The short-term target for silver is the $32 round level, a resistance level tested multiple times since December 2024. On a pullback, $30.5 is key support.

Institutional Views and Trading Strategies

Goldman Sachs' commodities research team released a report noting that industrial demand for silver in solar energy and new energy vehicles continues to grow, coupled with mine supply constraints. The silver supply-demand gap is expected to widen to 2,500 tons in 2026, recommending adding long silver positions on dips. TD Securities analysts believe gold is under short-term pressure from Fed policy uncertainty, but the global central bank gold buying trend remains unchanged, with potential to return to $2,500 in the second half.

For short-term traders, the following key levels are recommended:

• Gold: Support $2,335/$2,320, Resistance $2,360/$2,370;
• Silver: Support $30.8/$30.5, Resistance $31.5/$32.0.

As of this writing, spot gold is at $2,349.2, spot silver at $31.18, Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 at RMB 547.8/gram, and Ag(T+D) at RMB 7,926/kilogram.

Risk Warning: Precious metals prices are affected by multiple factors. This article provides only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.